Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 14.554434 16.605909 18.803702 21.328801 24.145043 27.184571 30.708402
2025-09-21 11.289298 14.043034 17.213931 21.116544 25.770440 31.121517 37.717584
2025-09-28 9.203505 12.126849 15.657164 20.200554 25.855127 32.620640 41.283261
2025-10-05 8.260723 11.441030 15.442081 20.790352 27.689747 36.221793 47.492908
2025-10-12 7.478547 10.821909 15.181168 21.202529 29.212401 39.398983 53.213949
2025-10-19 6.634300 10.011469 14.567054 21.057051 29.941369 41.536799 57.646744
2025-10-26 5.909988 9.278167 13.968701 20.845549 30.511352 43.429353 61.774686
2025-11-02 5.366613 8.741618 13.582605 20.869973 31.362722 45.690509 66.443958
2025-11-09 4.939719 8.330262 13.329873 21.042904 32.398197 48.212098 71.534288
2025-11-16 4.501717 7.856065 12.938451 20.968966 33.048989 50.194115 75.919401
2025-11-23 4.088786 7.379687 12.500129 20.780906 33.498881 51.880686 79.919313
2025-11-30 3.793590 7.065161 12.282514 20.902613 34.396109 54.224615 84.924891
2025-12-07 3.616664 6.939100 12.362251 21.504162 36.070794 57.807960 91.931004
2025-12-14 3.293012 6.530510 11.952697 21.296978 36.477670 59.513039 96.218186
2025-12-21 2.874553 5.910950 11.140918 20.371895 35.684710 59.339889 97.637106
2025-12-28 2.760607 5.835392 11.245175 20.966865 37.347592 62.991907 105.002450
2026-01-04 2.626160 5.707938 11.247040 21.381798 38.726016 66.239542 111.840619
2026-01-11 2.417640 5.417725 10.937223 21.235350 39.157642 67.994908 116.390918
2026-01-18 2.219045 5.127370 10.604038 21.022248 39.456578 69.534616 120.634238
2026-01-25 2.069999 4.922704 10.412887 21.046865 40.153945 71.733364 125.989973
2026-02-01 1.951969 4.771005 10.309522 21.221070 41.111233 74.382612 132.147795
2026-02-08 1.813703 4.562511 10.080844 21.146587 41.620776 76.296472 137.151277
2026-02-15 1.674141 4.337080 9.801596 20.957135 41.909482 77.838943 141.575927